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Make Room for a New Depreciation King – the BMW iX

18K views 18 replies 11 participants last post by  NomoTesla  
#1 ·
Saw this article yesterday


Didn't have a lot of time to research deeply but similar depreciation on the Mercedes EQS SUV
 
#2 ·
Who cares? The more EVs on the road the better. This is great for the used market. I don't know anyone who buys cars based on future used resale value. Cars are not an investment. They are a tool. The presumption is that a car loses about 25% of its value the moment you drive off the lot. How is this any different?

I'm seeing used Teslas now under $30k. The entire vehicle market has dropped with the rise in interest rates. At least BMW didn't drop its MSRP by 25% like Tesla did, additionally screwing their customers.

I've never bought a used car in my life and I'm not about to start now.
 
#3 ·
@jwegger60 I personally think that here in the UK, based upon what I'm seeing, a brand new iX sold in the UK today is likely to lose 75% of its value over the first 3 years (based upon list price), especially once all the special offer relatively cheap iX40s on leases starting this year, come onto the used market in 2-4 years time.
 
#5 ·
Things got weird with high inflation, rollover of the US auto market, interest rates skyrocketing and changes to EV tax credits all happening at once.
So I am out $30k in depreciation on my iX, but I managed to get it with the $7.5k federal credit.. plus the Tesla I traded in against it depreciated $20k in a year (I get the monthly KBB emails).
So net I am down $2.5k, but I got to drive the iX for the last 14 months instead of an out of warranty Tesla Model 3.
I also managed to lock in a sub-4% interest rate vs 7% or whatever it would be if I were to buy now.

Oddly enough I had a thought that as the used iX market softens further, I might pick up a second one used for my wife to have her own car (we are a 1 car household currently).
 
#13 ·
I bought iX last year and got the $7,500 EV tax credit AND Section 179 business deduction, saving me tens of thousands. I also got a reduced registration rate due to when I bought, saving me about $4,500 over 4 years. Thanks to my CU's rate match, my finance rate was less than half of today's rates.

Overall I'd say I did pretty well. The net price of my iX, after all the tax savings, would have been about the same or less than the Tesla Model Y. Why on earth would I pay the same or more for a crap Tesla as a BMW? Crazy pants! When I first started the process last year, no Tesla was even eligible for the tax credit.

Since then Tesla dropped the Model Y I had configured from about $74k (+ tax/reg) to $64k, or about 15%. Tesla's drops have been even steeper for non-performance models.

I made the best deal I could at the time and I've been enjoying the car ever since. If I were buying it today, I would not be able to get the lower interest rate I got last year (under 3%), I would not get the federal tax credit, and I would be paying higher registration costs.
 
#6 · (Edited)
The article is a typical clickbait with a bunch of questionable methods to strengthen its point:
1) Adds sales tax and fees to new car price but doesn't for secondary prices. As if you don't need to pay tax, registration, and fees on secondary/CPO market.
2) Rounds up new car prices, but uses precise prices for the used ones.
3) Completely ignores the ongoing lease promos and real-life discounts, often totaling over 20K.
4) Didn't mention some other benefits of owning a new car: warranty, maintenance plan, etc.

Taking these nuances into account, we'll see that:
Price for a new, base 2024 iX (lease with an option to buy out at any point) is around 71K, while similar used cars around 1-1.5 years old can be found for 62-64K. So, the car can be found 12% cheaper in used condition, but then it won't come with 2-4% lease financing, (admittedly very basic) service plan, and full 4 years of bumper-to-bumper manufacturer's warranty. You would also miss newer head unit, drive assist technology, and usually passenger seat massage. But you would also get a couple of things, such as double USB ports in the back seats and AWS in some trim levels.

This is a very different conclusion from what the article presents, using the same methodology and a little bit of knowledge of current prices. This can hardly support the idea that shopping on the secondary market is smart strategy. For reference, your typical 1 year depreciation is 20%, so a new iX still makes sense over a used one, pricing wise. Of course, if you can afford a new one.

Now, we know that in reality people who bought iX before summer of 2023 didn't have access to the same deals that we have now. Their cars in fact did lose a lot of value in a short period of time, but not as much as portrayed. They paid lower MSRPs and package prices, and should have been eligible for federal and state incentives worth many thousands of dollars. And of course, for better or worse, they decided to buy a car during a historical peak in car prices, right at launch of a brand new model, when prices are always the highest due to scarcity, and exactly at the beginning of a severe economy downturn.

If you actually look into the numbers, BMW iX doesn't depreciate that much differently from any other comparable car. But just like with any other EV, the math is a little harder, and the incentives make it more ambiguous.
 
#7 ·
@ilya4min Things are rather different here in the UK. Brand new iX50 M Sports are being advertised with 12% discount from BMW, and even looking at 9 month old iX50 (10k miles) fully loaded with options (including unlimited mileage 4 year service plan) from a BMW dealer under the approved used scheme, it's coming in at a 30% less than list price (and that's before any negotiating down)
 
#9 ·
All new non-bespoke cars depreciate on average 50% in 3 years.

As a buyer, you are well served to purchase these cars as they come off of lease. Typically, this is how I operated for the last 40 years. If you take care of the car many times you can sell it many years later for what you paid for it. Currently, I am selling our 2000 Jaguar XKR for more than what we paid for it to make room for our new iX in the garage. Conversely, we are giving away our Land Rover LR3 with 200K miles as it is on its last leg.

For the past 4 years, we have only been driving our used BMW i3 Rex with originally 14K miles to stay carbon neutral and because it drives better than both our Jag and LR3.

So why buy the BMW iX new?

Because there is nothing else out there as good in the used market. The iX is fairly new and any used iXs can not be purchased yet at the typical 50% discount to make it worthwhile to take the risk of buying a used car.
 
#10 ·
There are 12 month old jaguar Ipaces on auto trader for less than £40k that I think offer great value for money. If you exclude reliability and old tech arguments. Also you can purchase Land Rover warranty after the three year warranty has expired. Most premium electric cars are going to cost min £30k over three years, so £40k to own looks good.
 
#15 ·
@Cunny Bloody hell. I just found an 1 year old ipace top spec that had a list of £77k for £36k, with just 10k miles, at a Jaguar dealer.

That's 53% lost in a year.
I would have gone for one of those if I hadn’t got the good lease deal through bmw business. I lease mine through my limited company so additional tax savings made a big difference.
 
#17 ·
I’m always get so confused on the finance mambo jumbo.

In plain terms then what does it mean if I am on a full circle with BMW and a 40% balloon at the end with guaranteed future value.

So if it depreciates more to what they told on the guarantee future value how does it impact me…

If either I want to keep the vehicle or trade it in for a new one
 
#18 ·
This video is click bait. If we watch any part of the used vehicle pricing market, the whole market has taken a massive dive the last six months. He could have made 20 equivalent videos with other brands, entitled every one the same, “New Depreciation King.” Is this the bottom or will there be further adjustment?
 
#19 ·
Inflation has pretty much dropped to normal levels and I would expect the fed to stop raising rates soon. Once the fed rates start to drop we will see an improvement in vehicle sales. After all, vehicle interest rates went from basically 3% to over 5%. 30-year fixed mortgage rates went from sub-3% to over 7%. Cars are discretionary purchases and most are financed. The drop in volumes makes total sense given the macro economic conditions. But these are temporary.